Ukraine News

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

19%chance

589323581

OptionVotes

YES

10757

5615

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

591251536

OptionVotes

YES

12736

11698

Ukraine warcasting megamarket

Jun 8, 2:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

351218241

OptionProbability

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2024

100

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

677151278

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

39%chance

197129734

OptionVotes

YES

1148

809

Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?

Dec 30, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.66%chance

14336900

OptionVotes

YES

4137

645

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?

Aug 17, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.11%chance

13729599

OptionVotes

YES

3869

983

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?

Jun 17, 10:18 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.27%chance

26624128

OptionVotes

YES

3732

1538

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.53%chance

15122801

OptionVotes

YES

3010

1006

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.46%chance

332820

OptionVotes

YES

2033

1953

Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?

Mar 7, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.96%chance

291737

OptionVotes

YES

2006

1960

Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?

Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.88%chance

241370

OptionVotes

YES

1779

1135

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Prediction markets for Ukraine

Prediction markets for Ukraine

Prediction markets for Ukraine

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Ukraine warcasting megamarket

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?

Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?

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