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Prediction markets for ULA

Which Rocket Launches Next?

Feb 15, 3:54 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

154417

OptionProbability

SLS (Artemis II)

Starship (Flight 12)

New Glenn (Blue Bird Block 2)

Vulcan (GPS III SV10)

42

29

28

2

Conditional on humans settling mars by 2050, whose spaceships will send more of the first 100 settlers?

Aug 21, 4:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302548

OptionProbability

SpaceX

NASA

Other

China

Blue Origin

Ruscosmos

ULA

ESA

63

15

15

5

1

1

0

0

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Nov 13, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111312

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

100

27

3

1

1

1

1

Who will be the next CEO of ULA?

Dec 23, 2:46 AMJan 1, 2:42 AM

5270

OptionProbability

Other

Mark Peller (current COO)

John Elbon (interim CEO)

Eric Salwan

65

13

11

11

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Mar 20, 9:15 PMMar 21, 3:59 AM

4120

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 3

Above 5

Above 7

83

61

27

24

Will ULA have reused engines by the end of 2030?

Jun 18, 2:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.53%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Will Vulcan ever suffer an anomaly?

May 23, 5:34 AMDec 31, 6:08 AM

50%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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