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Prediction markets for UM

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will Drake win at least $1 in damages from UMG for calling him a pedophile by the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.8%chance

91044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

10281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

304

33

Will the Drake v UMG defamation lawsuit be dismissed or settled before going to trial?

Jan 15, 3:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.36%chance

5238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

49

Will 1,3-butanediol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)

Feb 27, 6:03 PMJan 7, 3:59 PM

31.89%chance

10236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

967

Will Captopril significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)

Feb 27, 6:10 PMJan 7, 3:59 PM

31.65%chance

1082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

969

Will Zan Huang (at UMich) win Emergent Ventures by EOY 2026?

Jan 3, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

48

Will Umineko get another official anime adaptation?

Aug 18, 10:54 PMJan 1, 11:14 PM

47.78%chance

227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

96

Will $POLY replace UMA?

Mar 9, 11:52 AMDec 31, 12:51 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will Isaak Freeman win the Ehrenzeichen für Verdienste um die Republik Österreich by EOY 2060?

Sep 21, 6:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Moritz Plieger win the Ehrenzeichen für Verdienste um die Republik Österreich by EOY2060

Sep 21, 7:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Tim Farkas win the Ehrenzeichen für Verdienste um die Republik Österreich by EOY 2060?

Sep 21, 6:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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