OptionProbability
Elon Musk does NOT defend the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & X is NOT unblocked in China before 2026
Elon Musk does NOT defend the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & X is unblocked in China before 2026
Elon Musk defends the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & X is unblocked in China before 2026
Elon Musk defends the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & X is NOT unblocked in China before 2026
96
4
0
Direct commercial flights to the EU resume
Central Bank interest rate (a.k.a. key rate) is less or equal 5% at some moment
Partial mobilization formally ends
Russia and Ukraine re-establish full diplomatic relations (embassies reopen)
New FSB director appointed
Amnesty for draft evasion announced
New prime minister appointed
Early State Duma elections called
Access to Instagram unblocked nationwide by Roskomnadzor
Constitutional amendments remove annexed Ukrainian regions from the Russian Federation
Russia militarily invades another country
Russia rejoins the Council of Europe
Major (>50k people) anti-government protests in Moscow
Vladimir Putin ceases to be the president of Russia
58
51
42
40
39
38
37
36
34
31
30
24
OptionVotes
YES
NO
411
85
Other
Joseph R. Biden
Barack Obama
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Donald J. Trump
79
11
7
1
315
32
241
117
Will touch boobs
Yud unblock
52
41