OptionProbability
The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic
The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"
Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government
The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead
The supply chain risk designation is officially issued
OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements
An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation
A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War
Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027
Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July
An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months
Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees
The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI
US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification
Anthropic's contract is publicly available
OpenAI's new contract is publicly available
The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act
Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon
Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")
The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act
Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic
Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers
Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?
Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities
The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)
The Pentagon and Anthropic come to some form of mutual settlement by the Friday deadline
100
94
89
85
80
77
69
58
57
50
26
19
12
11
6
4
3
2
0
Direct commercial flights to the EU resume
Central Bank interest rate (a.k.a. key rate) is less or equal 5% at some moment
Partial mobilization formally ends
Russia and Ukraine re-establish full diplomatic relations (embassies reopen)
New FSB director appointed
Amnesty for draft evasion announced
New prime minister appointed
Early State Duma elections called
Access to Instagram unblocked nationwide by Roskomnadzor
Constitutional amendments remove annexed Ukrainian regions from the Russian Federation
Russia militarily invades another country
Russia rejoins the Council of Europe
Major (>50k people) anti-government protests in Moscow
Vladimir Putin ceases to be the president of Russia
51
42
40
39
38
37
36
34
31
30
24
Other
Barack Obama
Joseph R. Biden
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Donald J. Trump
81
8
7
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
241
117