Union Law News

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

1207

867

Will Greenland become a member of the EU before 2040?

Jan 4, 2:26 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

40.76%chance

14776

OptionVotes

YES

121

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

239

When will Canada break apart?

May 1, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11298

OptionProbability

No breakup / none of these years

Between 2035 and 2039

Between 2030 and 2034

Between 2040 and 2044

Between 2025 and 2029

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Jul 23, 3:49 AMDec 31, 10:33 PM

8277

OptionProbability

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025

Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

100

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

Mar 24, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

14166

OptionVotes

YES

999

996

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.05%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

128

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

133

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

Aug 12, 3:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

45.75%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

133

107

Union Law News

Prediction markets for Union Law

Prediction markets for Union Law

Prediction markets for Union Law

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Will Greenland become a member of the EU before 2040?

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

When will Canada break apart?

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

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