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Prediction markets for United Spirits

Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?

Nov 9, 5:49 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

10.15%chance

639336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10195

5015

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM

10.5%chance

396256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2919

343

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

346089

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

Boeing

OAN

Lockheed Martin

ExxonMobil

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

27

24

23

21

20

20

20

17

15

14

10

10

7

6

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

1338

WIll the United States National Guard kill someone before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Sep 8, 6:24 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

17.05%chance

333282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

453

What political positions did Charlie Kirk's shooter support?

Sep 17, 6:06 AMJan 1, 6:41 AM

271564

OptionProbability

Puberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria

Free speech and freedom of expression

Hate Speech Laws

Universal vote by mail

Single payer health care or Medicare for All

Mandatory menstrual leave (paid)

Universal background checks for firearm sales

Non-sectarian prayer in schools

Lower capital gains tax

Right-to-work laws

Land Value Tax

A physical wall at the southern border

75

57

57

54

52

50

45

40

26

24

23

13

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Where will the "AI revolution" first take place?

Nov 6, 9:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26815

OptionProbability

United States

China

Other

United Kingdom

Singapore

India

European Union

Switzerland

Canada

South Korea

Japan

Israel

Australia

Russia

38

21

10

7

6

5

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

If Labour wins the 2025 U.K. general election, will an AI kill 10% of humans before 2032?

Jun 1, 2:29 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

4.98%chance

4615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

389

34

US recognizes Taiwan by January 20, 2029?

Mar 30, 10:38 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.17%chance

11374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

If Conservatives win the 2025 U.K. general election, will an AI kill 10% of humans before 2032?

Jun 1, 2:26 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

10.3%chance

2106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

36

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Anthropic

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Zhipu / Z.ai

StepFun

Other (any company not listed above)

14

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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