OptionVotes
NO
YES
1177
850
OptionProbability
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
100
100
100
79
76
68
68
68
66
66
66
57
56
56
51
49
49
48
47
46
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
36
35
35
34
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
27
24
OptionProbability
KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC (ban on prediction markets for elections)
Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (PredictIt Case)
Ryan v. FTC (Non-compete ban case)
United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried
U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case)
Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case)
U.S and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. (Apple antitrust case)
United States v. Binance Holdings (charges against Binance for iolating several laws, including the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the Commodity Exchange Act)
Federal Trade Commission v. Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard, Inc (Attempt to block Microsoft's merger/acquisition of Activision Blizzard)
United States v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta antitrust case)
Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC (E-cigarette supreme court case)
TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland (TikTok Ban)
United States v. Skrmetti (ban on transgender health care for minors)
100
50
50
32
31
31
31
31
31
31
3
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1623
616
OptionProbability
Apple gets subjected to financial penalties
Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.
IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities
The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.
The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.
The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.
Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.
Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).
Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading
The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.
The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.
If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)
The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices
The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.
The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.
The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.
The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.
Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.
The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.
Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionVotes
NO
YES
343
29
OptionVotes
YES
NO
148
68
