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Prediction markets for United States SEC

Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?

Nov 6, 3:21 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

7.62%chance

5713373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3481

287

Which companies will the Trump administration take a stake in?

Oct 13, 12:01 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

112134

OptionProbability

USA Rare Earth

ExxonMobile

Chevron

Sunoco

GlobalFoundries

Boeing

Ford

Palantir

Tesla

AMD

United Health

Moderna

55

50

50

50

35

29

17

17

15

15

12

8

Will Texas secede from the United States by 2030?

Jan 13, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.11%chance

211744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

947

Will there be a general strike in the United States before Trump's second term ends?

Feb 27, 10:59 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

84%chance

191273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

456

160

Who will come second at the 2028 United States presidential elections? (Add Responses)

Mar 26, 5:01 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

161099

OptionProbability

Other

Gavin Newsom

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden

82

8

3

2

2

2

1

Will Kim Jong Un visit the United States during Trump’s second term?

Nov 26, 5:33 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

8.37%chance

241042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

331

30

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

69.72%chance

6757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1518

659

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by March 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 4:34 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

28.86%chance

7741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1570

637

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.43%chance

12442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will the United States have a second incorporated unorganized territory by the end of 2028?

Oct 5, 4:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.38%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Will the United States deplete its methane reserves in Trump's second term?

Apr 1, 11:19 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

43.77%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will United States citizens born in 1995 be eligible to receive full social security benefits in 2062?

May 6, 11:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.56%chance

364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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