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Prediction markets for United States SEC

Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?

Nov 6, 3:21 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

7.32%chance

6014175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3559

281

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

10.23%chance

153257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2963

338

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

33.64%chance

42768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1404

712

Will Texas secede from the United States by 2030?

Jan 13, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.38%chance

232247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

936

Will there be a general strike in the United States before Trump's second term ends?

Feb 27, 10:59 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

84%chance

191273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

456

160

Who will come second at the 2028 United States presidential elections? (Add Responses)

Mar 26, 5:01 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

181206

OptionProbability

Other

Marco Rubio

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden

34

30

28

3

2

1

1

1

1

Will Kim Jong Un visit the United States during Trump’s second term?

Nov 26, 5:33 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

8.84%chance

261044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

Will Marco Rubio be the United States Secretary of State on 12/31/2026?

Mar 10, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.24%chance

22683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

40

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

788

Will the United States have a second incorporated unorganized territory by the end of 2028?

Oct 5, 4:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.38%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Will the United States deplete its methane reserves in Trump's second term?

Apr 1, 11:19 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

43.77%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will United States citizens born in 1995 be eligible to receive full social security benefits in 2062?

May 6, 11:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.56%chance

364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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