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Prediction markets for United States Supreme Court

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4114777

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Political rival

State governor

Member of congress

State supreme court judge

Supreme court judge

Former US president

38

23

23

23

18

17

16

11

8

7

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM

23.32%chance

154740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

552

As 2029 begins, who will be a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States? [w/ user-added answers]

Nov 12, 12:07 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

193795

OptionProbability

Neil M. Gorsuch

Brett M. Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Elena Kagan

Ketanji Brown Jackson

John G. Roberts, Jr.

Sonia Sotomayor

Clarence Thomas

Samuel A. Alito, Jr.

93

93

92

91

91

87

86

44

24

When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 7, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

192929

OptionProbability

2026

2028

2027

2030

2029

Other

2025

2024

2023

2015

40

30

17

4

4

4

1

1

1

0

Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Jan 22, 8:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

201891

OptionProbability

Other

Judge James Ho

Aileen Cannon

Andrew Oldham

Amul Thapar

Patrick J. Bumatay

Justice Tewtosan Tenyfor

Elizabeth Prelogar

56

23

8

5

4

3

1

1

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

63.51%chance

91341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

758

Will Donald Trump nominate Peter Thiel to serve on the Supreme Court of the United States during Trump II?

Feb 16, 10:39 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

5.08%chance

14692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

432

23

Who will be the next person appointed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

17677

OptionProbability

Other

James Ho

Sri Srinivasan

Vanita Gupta

(Grace) Helen Whitener

Neomi Rao

Not me

Kamala Harris

Cheri Beasley

Lawrence Krasner

Leondra Kruger

Carlton Reeves

Wilhelmina Wright

Adrienne Nelson

Goodwin Liu

Barack Obama

Toby Heytens

Test

85

5

2

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

955

Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 7, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:40 AM

12349

OptionProbability

Other

Justice Tewtosan Tenyfor

James Ho

Sri Srinivasan

J. Michelle Childs

Neomi Rao

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Elizabeth Prelogar

Barbara Lagoa

Leondra Kruger

Jane L. Kelly

Paul J. Watford

88

3

3

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Elizabeth Prelogar be a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 7, 5:57 PMJan 1, 8:40 AM

29.37%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

93

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