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Prediction markets for United Technologies

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

444403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

843

Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?

Sep 29, 1:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.39%chance

462903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

921

US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?

Nov 16, 6:00 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

39.88%chance

182731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

64.89%chance

122597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1360

736

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

61.83%chance

112048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

717

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

Will universal basic income be introduced in the U.S. by 2030?

Aug 1, 8:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.51%chance

361464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

860

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.93%chance

291208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

900

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.54%chance

22789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

969

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

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