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Prediction markets for Universal Service

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1816

552

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.91%chance

734737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1391

1188

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

When will UK millennials get their state pension?

Aug 3, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

321110

OptionProbability

69 to 73 years old

There will be no state pension for millenials

Over 73 years old

68 years old

63 to 67 years old

Under 63 years old

56

18

14

10

2

0

When will the United States get universal healthcare?

Jan 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12439

OptionProbability

In 10 years

Never

In 25 years

In 50 years

In 100 years

35

35

20

5

5

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

Jun 9, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.76%chance

7253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Until Labs preserve Ben Sasse?

Apr 10, 9:50 PMApr 10, 9:50 PM

14.95%chance

6152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

May 15, 12:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

4148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

128

A public 2026 Dutch government cyberbreach will happen in ... ?

Dec 27, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3124

OptionProbability

Q1 - January, February, March 2026

Q2 - April, May, June 2026

Q3 - July, August, September 2026

Q4 - October, November, December 2026

100

34

34

34

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

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