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Prediction markets for Universal UK

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

When will there be a UK/US free trade agreement?

Nov 10, 8:20 PMJan 17, 11:59 PM

82129

OptionProbability

2026

2028

Other

2027

2025

2023

2024

35

19

19

17

8

1

1

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

Will Rory Stewart be a UK ambassador to any country by end of 2035?

Apr 16, 10:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

21.13%chance

221622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

782

[Metaculus] Will any of the US, EU, UK, or China have enacted a universal basic income before 2030?

May 13, 4:17 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

7.39%chance

111071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

858

Keir Starmer still UK prime minister by?

Jan 17, 4:12 AMDec 17, 11:59 PM

15621

OptionProbability

June 2026

December 2026

June 2027

December 2027

June 2028

December 2028

June 2029

December 2029

June 2030

December 2030

June 2031

December 2031

59

42

38

23

20

18

15

12

9

9

9

8

When will the United States get universal healthcare?

Jan 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11418

OptionProbability

Never

In 10 years

In 25 years

In 50 years

In 100 years

40

25

23

6

6

Will the UK £100k 'tax trap' be scrapped by the 2026 Tax year?

Mar 21, 4:14 PMApr 5, 11:59 PM

10347

OptionProbability

No

Yes - Both (allowance taper and childcare cut-off removed)

Yes - Childcare cliff-edge removed

Yes - Tax free allowance taper removed

94

13

9

5

Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?

May 27, 10:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.5%chance

4199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will Ed Balls stand for election as an MP before 2030?

Jul 3, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.25%chance

359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study?

Dec 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.57%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

510

491

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