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Prediction markets for Universal UK

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15737

14292

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

When will there be a UK/US free trade agreement?

Nov 10, 8:20 PMJan 17, 11:59 PM

82638

OptionProbability

2028

Other

2027

2026

2023

2024

2025

32

32

30

3

1

1

1

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.6%chance

221642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will Rory Stewart be a UK ambassador to any country by end of 2035?

Apr 16, 10:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

21.43%chance

231627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

787

[Metaculus] Will any of the US, EU, UK, or China have enacted a universal basic income before 2030?

May 13, 4:17 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

7.39%chance

111071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

858

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.73%chance

12716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

38

Will Ed Balls stand for election as an MP before 2030?

Jul 3, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

5223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?

May 27, 10:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.5%chance

4199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Will a major film studio release a Where's Waldo movie by 2030?

Feb 26, 2:02 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

36.95%chance

7115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

147

Rogue SOTA AI autonomously surviving and replicating for at least three months by EOY 2030?

Sep 27, 7:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study?

Dec 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.53%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

501

499

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