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Prediction markets for Universal UK

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

Keir Starmer still UK prime minister by?

Jan 17, 4:12 AMDec 17, 11:59 PM

242501

OptionProbability

June 2026

December 2026

June 2027

December 2027

June 2028

December 2028

June 2029

December 2029

June 2030

December 2030

June 2031

December 2031

45

36

22

12

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

When will there be a UK/US free trade agreement?

Nov 10, 8:20 PMJan 17, 11:59 PM

82129

OptionProbability

2026

2028

Other

2027

2025

2023

2024

35

19

19

17

8

1

1

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

Will Rory Stewart be a UK ambassador to any country by end of 2035?

Apr 16, 10:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

21.13%chance

221622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

782

[Metaculus] Will any of the US, EU, UK, or China have enacted a universal basic income before 2030?

May 13, 4:17 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

7.39%chance

111071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

858

When will the United States get universal healthcare?

Jan 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11418

OptionProbability

Never

In 10 years

In 25 years

In 50 years

In 100 years

40

25

23

6

6

Will Ed Balls stand for election as an MP before 2030?

Jul 3, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.09%chance

4219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?

May 27, 10:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.5%chance

4199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will a major film studio release a Where's Waldo movie by 2030?

Feb 26, 2:02 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

41.58%chance

793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

162

Will ME/CFS blood test replicate in larger study?

Dec 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.57%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

510

491

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