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Prediction markets for University Impact

Will Brent Venables still be head coach of Oklahoma college football by the end of the 2025-26 season?

May 22, 11:28 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

98.77%chance

710006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8944

112

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

438

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will Black Students Be Less Than 10% of the Ivy League Class of 2028?

Dec 2, 8:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

36.86%chance

12434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

78

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

223

Polymarket exceeds $6B trading volume in June 2026?

Nov 20, 4:39 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

43.2%chance

9221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

Moral praise of blame for a person should correspond only to that person’s level of selflessness.

Nov 7, 7:08 PM

40

Help me become better at Computer Science

Oct 27, 10:43 AM

00

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