OptionProbability
Tell someone to commit suicide on Manifold (resolves YES)
Have sex with a cisgender person
Get a job
Be hospitalized
Go 14 days without making a bet on Manifold
Accidentally break my Nintendo Switch 2 (must be my fault; does not include manufacturing defects, inevitable battery degradation, etc)
Willfully do a recreational drug other than caffeine, alcohol, marijuana, or nicotine
Fail to vote in an American election that I'm eligible to vote in
Leave the USA
Get a STD (and be aware of it)
Willfully eat an animal product (excluding human and excluding lab-grown meat)
Vote for a Republican in a general election (excluding nonpartisan and unopposed elections)
Rob a Baskin-Robbins ran by a Rob in robes
100
57
49
23
22
15
13
12
11
6
5
1
Dec 13 or earlier
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 20 or later
Dec 18
Dec 19
19
8
7
4
3
