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Prediction markets for University of the Arts

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Which California Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?

May 10, 5:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41467

OptionProbability

California College of ASU

Woodbury University

Notre Dame de Namur University

San Diego Christian College

Academy of Art University

Sofia University

Humphreys University

Fresno Pacific University

Pathways College

Menlo College

100

100

74

55

50

41

38

37

35

27

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?

Dec 24, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5122

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Economy

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Environment and sustainability

Society

Space Exploration

Art and culture

Human Rights

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

76

76

75

74

50

50

50

34

34

34

34

Will there be a trailer for Lars of the Stars before 2027?

Dec 13, 2:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.53%chance

4110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

60

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionProbability

YES

NO

265

222

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

If Aliens Experience More Meaningful Lives Than us, Ought we Accept Our Demise? (Read Description)

Apr 16, 6:00 PM

130

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