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Prediction markets for Unknown Worlds

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

What scapegoat will make us all sing "kumbaya" by 2030?

Feb 11, 11:26 PMFeb 13, 10:59 PM

145045

OptionProbability

No such scapegoat will manifest

planet-killing asteroid

Other

Jesus Christ (second coming)

Rogue AGI

Me (specifically me, Jessica Evans)

previously unknown virus

invasive spores

unknown energy state

alien ghosts

telepathic dolphins

41

12

11

9

8

7

4

3

3

1

1

Will the alleged alien mummies from Peru be debunked before 2026?

Nov 10, 5:37 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.48%chance

173346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

284

Will Total Human Population Fall Below Four Billion by End of 2030?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 30, 10:59 PM

5.23%chance

283066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1782

911

What will be the total human population in 2030?

Jun 18, 6:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

181017

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1001

811

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Aug 2, 2:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.24%chance

10889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

148

Will a new pandemic caused by a currently unknown virus be declared by the World Health Organization by 2030?

Jan 23, 3:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.51%chance

28628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

936

Novel human infectious disease identified by WHO before EOY2025?

Mar 24, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.19%chance

13562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Will a new species, previously unknown to science, be discovered in Lake Vostok by the end of 2025?

Aug 8, 10:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.49%chance

9158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

158

What will be the total human population in 2040?

Jun 18, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.06%chance

270

OptionProbability

YES

NO

272

223

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