UP News

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

1758496

OptionProbability

Dec 2026 or later/never

Oct 2026

Nov 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20342056

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.91%chance

12237892

OptionVotes

YES

2306

1876

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Jan 6, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.65%chance

19737118

OptionVotes

YES

3086

1164

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2519584

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Alignment relatively easy

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

New AI paradigm

Brakes not hit

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

Will this story end up on "Last Week Tonight"?

Oct 23, 2:30 AMNov 21, 11:59 PM

11.64%chance

7814994

OptionVotes

YES

12411

841

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

67.89%chance

676430

OptionVotes

YES

1451

640

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.46%chance

131749

OptionVotes

YES

1195

1194

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

YES

10107

9894

Will this tweet hold up: Sinners will be — should be — a Broadway show by 2035

Mar 16, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.72%chance

81627

OptionVotes

YES

7353

4926

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

Aug 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:04 AM

47.29%chance

291208

OptionVotes

YES

1240

898

Will the 2028 Presidential Election Winner Mog the Runner-up?

Feb 26, 2:28 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

58.66%chance

7345

OptionVotes

YES

1112

813

UP News

Prediction markets for UP

Prediction markets for UP

Prediction markets for UP

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Will this story end up on "Last Week Tonight"?

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Will this tweet hold up: Sinners will be — should be — a Broadway show by 2035

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

Will the 2028 Presidential Election Winner Mog the Runner-up?

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