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OptionProbability
Gannon Ken Van Dyke
We don't find out by end of 2026
JD Vance (VP)
Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)
Pete Hegseth (SecDef)
Barron Trump
Marco Rubio (Sec State)
John Ratcliffe (CIA)
Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)
Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)
Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)
Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)
Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)
Other
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
OptionProbability
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Gene Editing Therapies
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Bioprinting
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)
Human-level AGI
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Space-Based Manufacturing
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Seafloor Mining Robots
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Quantum Computing Applications
Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy
Graphene semiconductor electronics
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Lunar Bases
Moon base
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)
Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure
Britain finishes HS2
More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)
Photonic computing
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Commercial asteroid mining
Datacenters in space
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.
Joywire
Nuclear powered cargo ships
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Fast travel across the globe
Commercial fusion power
AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts
Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects
Mars Base
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Changing the height of an adult at will
Von Neumann Probe
Orbital Habitats
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Fusion Drives
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Human Mind Uploading
Space-to-Earth power stations
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Human sex change at chromosome level
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Changing a person's race at will
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Vacuum Airships
Time travel to the future
Commercial cold fusion
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Antimatter bombs
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
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OptionProbability
Coding agents will close the loop
Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market
Coding agents will flip the initiative
The multi-agent paradigm will win
The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important
“Live learning” will be standard
xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality
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77
70
65
51
20
5
OptionProbability
We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.
The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.
A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.
Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.
This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration
Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.
Constitutions play a critical role in the frontier methods for aligning AI.
A good AI should not kill people.
There would be a dramatic positive change in the world if teenagers and homeless folks could earn crypto on an app they download for free to argue philosophy with an AI until they can either prove the AI is right or prove it is wrong.
Philosophy is primarily the pursuit of defining language.
A duty to reason is the foundation for goodness.
I have free will.
A good AI should not infringe on the rights, autonomy or property of humans.
We should stop doing massive training runs.
The evolutionary environment contains perverse incentives that have led to substantial false consciousness in humans
Induction is not justified.
A good AI, by design, requires large scale human participation to grow.
A good AI requires large scale humanity verification before it accepts new data as true.
The principle of uniformity in nature is self evident or justified by self evident facts.
God exists.
AI should not create novel content.
The quality of mercy is not strained...
Vriska did nothing wrong.
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OptionProbability
imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv
There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US
The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines
The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria
Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight
Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.
Biden voted for trump
Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain
5G cellular networks were intentionally developed to create health issues or mind control.
Donald Trump is secretly working to dismantle the cabal associated with QAnon
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OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"bigger paychecks"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
15272
6552
OptionProbability
Anthropic is designated as a supply chain risk
Anthropic's Pentagon contract is canceled
Donald Trump publicly comments on the conflict (by March 15)
A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks
Anthropic agrees to "all lawful use" of their models (or it is otherwise made clear that no use restrictions on the models will be in effect)
Defense Production Act used to compel Anthropic
More than 10 Anthropic employees publicly state that they're leaving due to (or partially due to) the result of this conflict
The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes
100
100
100
97
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11
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0
OptionProbability
Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")
Preventing S-Risks
Wild-animal welfare
Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC
Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)
Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts
Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation
Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness
Climate geoengineeering
Preventing stable totalitarianism
Space governance / space colonization
Georgism (aka land value taxes)
Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc
Cryonics & brain-emulation research
Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research
Charter cities / affinity cities / network states
Civilizational-preservation bunkers
Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc
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34
31
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9
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OptionProbability
Other
Bitcoin - Lightning Network
Ethereum
Bitcoin
There will be no such thing
85
39
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20
OptionProbability
Other
A new global pandemic
A major natural disaster affecting multiple states
Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts
A severe economic recession leading to panic buying
A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks
A recall of contaminated toilet paper products
A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry
Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews
A sudden surge in population due to mass migration
A widespread power grid failure
A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery
A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production
A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling
A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant
A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods
A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply
A major political event causing widespread uncertainty
A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage
A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment
A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories
volcano eruption
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OptionProbability
At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example
At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable
A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory
Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.
No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.
Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture
P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)
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9