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Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Gene Editing Therapies

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Bioprinting

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

a molecule derived using Alphafold (current or successor models) achieves over $1B of commercial retail sales

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

Human-level AGI

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Space-Based Manufacturing

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Seafloor Mining Robots

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

Quantum Computing Applications

Graphene semiconductor electronics

ASI

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Lunar Bases

Moon base

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

Britain finishes HS2

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Photonic computing

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

Commercial asteroid mining

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Datacenters in space

Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.

Joywire

Commercial fusion power

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Fast travel across the globe

AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

Nuclear powered cargo ships

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

Mars Base

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Human Mind Uploading

Changing the height of an adult at will

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Orbital Habitats

Fusion Drives

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Space-to-Earth power stations

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Human sex change at chromosome level

Changing a person's race at will

Von Neumann Probe

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Vacuum Airships

Time travel to the future

Commercial cold fusion

Space Elevator

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Antimatter bombs

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Faster then Light Propulsion

Other

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Yulia Navalnaya

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

Pope Leo XIV

Save the Children

UNRWA

Narges Mohammadi

Donald Trump

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Shehbaz Sharif

Netanyahu

International Court of Justice

Greta Thunberg

Narendra Modi

Abdullah Öcalan

Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

duplicate - international Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

Jimmy Lai

Francesca Albanese

Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

Haitham bin Tariq Al Said

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.

The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.

A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.

This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration

Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.

Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.

Constitutions play a critical role in the frontier methods for aligning AI.

A good AI should not kill people.

There would be a dramatic positive change in the world if teenagers and homeless folks could earn crypto on an app they download for free to argue philosophy with an AI until they can either prove the AI is right or prove it is wrong.

Philosophy is primarily the pursuit of defining language.

A duty to reason is the foundation for goodness.

I have free will.

A good AI should not infringe on the rights, autonomy or property of humans.

We should stop doing massive training runs.

The evolutionary environment contains perverse incentives that have led to substantial false consciousness in humans

Induction is not justified.

A good AI, by design, requires large scale human participation to grow.

A good AI requires large scale humanity verification before it accepts new data as true.

The principle of uniformity in nature is self evident or justified by self evident facts.

God exists.

AI should not create novel content.

The quality of mercy is not strained...

imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv

The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines

The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria

There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US

Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight

Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.

Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain

Biden voted for trump

Donald Trump is secretly working to dismantle the cabal associated with QAnon

Joe Biden campaigns actively for Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms

Joe Biden hosts a political podcast or TV show

Joe Biden becomes a regular political commentator on a major network

Joe Biden holds any formal position in the Democratic Party or a state Democratic Party

Joe Biden launches a new political action committee

Joe Biden runs for POTUS in 2028 (formally files FEC Form 2)

Joe Biden becomes POTUS

Citizen Kane

Schindler's List

The Godfather

Casablanca

Raging Bull

Singin in the Rain

Vertigo

The Shawshank Redemption

Gone with the Wind

The Wizard of Oz

City Lights

The Sound of Music

West Side Story

Lawrence of Arabia

Bridge on the River Kwai

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

King Kong (original)

Bonnie and Clyde

Midnight Cowboy

The Philadelphia Story

It Happened One Night

The Graduate

To Kill a Mockingbird

All About Eve

The Maltese Falcon

One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

Dr Strangelove

Jaws

Star Wars

Psycho

2001 A Space Odyssey

Sunset Boulevard

The General

On The Waterfront

It's a Wonderful Life

Some Like it Hot

The Grapes of Wrath

ET the Extra Terrestrial

Mr Smith Goes to Washington

Double Indemnity

Apocalypse Now

Godfather Part II

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

Annie Hall

A Streetcar Named Desire

Rear Window

Taxi Driver

The Deer Hunter

M*A*S*H*

North by Northwest

Rocky

The Gold Rush

Sullivan's Travels

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

Chinatown

High Noon

Intolerance

Nashville

Shane

Duck Soup

Network

The African Queen

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

Unforgiven

The Searchers

Saving Private Ryan

A Clockwork Orange

Cabaret

Tootsie

Do The Right Thing

American Graffiti

Pulp Fiction

12 Angry Men

Platoon

Silence of the Lambs

Titanic

The Sixth Sense

Goodfellas

Toy Story

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

In the Heat of the Night

Modern Times

The Wild Bunch

Spartacus

A Night at the Opera

Swing Time

Sophie's Choice

The Last Picture Show

The Best Years of our Lives

All the President's Men

Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

Easy Rider

Bringing Up Baby

Yankee Doodle Dandy

The Apartment

Forrest Gump

Blade Runner

Ben-Hur

It will be based on deep learning

It will be based on neural networks

Gary Marcus will be completely unimpressed by its capabilities

At least one person directly involved in its creation will be a trillionaire

More than 10 000 human hours will be spent to make sure it does not return politically incorrect outputs

It will run on Nvidia GPUs

It will wipe out humanity after the rapid recursive self-improvement

Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population as a prosaic thing, e.g. “it is just matrices to predict the next word”

Right before the extermination event, at least 25% of human population will think that they are smarter than it.

Before the extermination event, it will make significant extraordinary contributions to science, technology, and human well-being.

When communicating with human words, it will use the word “delve” more often than it occurs in human texts on average

It will be created by OpenAI, Anthropic or DeepMind

It will be some advanced form of a multimodal transformer

It will run on an AI architecture which is not known as of 2024

Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population a superintelligence with the capabilities beyond their comprehension

Meta will try to create an open source version of it

The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 24 hours from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed

Before wiping out humanity, it will attempt some trade with humanity

Right before the extermination event, alignment will be generally considered a solved problem

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

AI-related cyberattack

AI-designed cyberweapon

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

Major AI safety incident or accident

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture

A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

A counterexample was found for Goldbach's conjecture

He will have a podcast.

Write a book

He will have an online streaming show not associated with a linear TV network.

Centaur Orbiter and Lander

Ceres Sample Return

Comet surface sample return

Saturn probe

Enceladus multiple flyby

Io Observer

Lunar Geophysical Network

Titan orbiter

Venus In Situ Explorer