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Prediction markets for UPL

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4439610

OptionProbability

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

≥3x

1-1.2x

2-2.5x

2.5-3x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

25

18

17

12

8

7

6

4

3

2

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29%chance

716082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1090

Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

514473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1349

776

Will YouTube begin restricting uploads by the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.55%chance

113252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

524

Will the mind of a C. elegans roundworm be uploaded before 2033?

Feb 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76%chance

371383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

889

Will octopuses be the first species we uplift?

Feb 14, 2:06 PMJan 14, 2:04 PM

11.1%chance

521113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

971

Will we uplift another species by 2075?

Dec 22, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.82%chance

29962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

799

Will humans uplift another species by 2050?

Dec 22, 1:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

25749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

957

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.34%chance

7654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

979

Once it becomes possible for the general populace to upload themselves, will at least 50% of them have done so within 2 years?

Nov 16, 12:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.24%chance

19356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

961

Will a non-human primate be the first species we uplift?

Dec 21, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.3%chance

16342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

890

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