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Prediction markets for UpLift

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2210326

OptionProbability

2-2.5x

1-1.2x

1.2-1.4x

1.4-1.6x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

2.5-3x

≥3x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

14

13

13

13

10

10

8

8

6

4

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

What will be the name of the singleton AI that uplifts humanity?

Feb 26, 7:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

253332

OptionProbability

Other

Prime Intellect

Elua

Singleton

Creature

Gemini

Divine Excrement

Mrs Davis

"AI"

"Computer"

Grok

Neuromancer/Wintermute

Deep Thought

Alpha

Mike

Mira

77

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will octopuses be the first species we uplift?

Feb 14, 2:06 PMJan 14, 2:04 PM

11.1%chance

521113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

971

Will we uplift another species by 2075?

Dec 22, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.82%chance

29962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

799

Will humans uplift another species by 2050?

Dec 22, 1:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

25749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

957

Will there be an uplifted primate by 2060?

Jul 30, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:45 PM

43.22%chance

12477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

168

If/when the octopus species is uplifted, what plural noun will they prefer for themselves?

Dec 8, 10:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15348

OptionProbability

Other

Octopuses

Octopodes

Octopi

Octopus

42

28

26

2

2

Will a non-human primate be the first species we uplift?

Dec 21, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.3%chance

16342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

890

Will a dog be uplifted into having human-level intelligence by 9999?

Apr 3, 10:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.68%chance

6170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

60

Will a parrot/cockatoo be uplifted into having human-level intelligence by 9999? #Transavianism

Apr 3, 10:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84%chance

5134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

64

Will we uplift an animal?

Mar 24, 3:47 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.51%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

73

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