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Prediction markets for UpLift

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5345534

OptionProbability

≥3x

2.5-3x

2-2.5x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1-1.2x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

23

14

13

12

12

11

8

5

2

1

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will octopuses be the first species we uplift?

Feb 14, 2:06 PMJan 14, 2:04 PM

11.1%chance

521113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

971

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.27%chance

81028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1481

907

Will we uplift another species by 2075?

Dec 22, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.82%chance

29962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

799

Will humans uplift another species by 2050?

Dec 22, 1:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

25749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

957

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Uplift level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:55 PMJul 1, 3:55 PM

2430

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

66

63

59

55

50

45

41

31

20

14

If/when the octopus species is uplifted, what plural noun will they prefer for themselves?

Dec 8, 10:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15348

OptionProbability

Other

Octopuses

Octopodes

Octopi

Octopus

42

28

26

2

2

Will a non-human primate be the first species we uplift?

Dec 21, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.3%chance

16342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

890

Will "theory uplift differentially benefits safety ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 22, 2:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

Will AI provide significant uplift to CBRN threat creation for high-school educated people by 2030?

Aug 29, 12:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.61%chance

794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

Will at least one of William Eden's kids be part of "the plot" and uplift humanity out of NPC-dom by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.59%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

74

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