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Broward Judge Allows Stand Your Ground Hearing for Miami-Dade Officer Facing Manslaughter in 2019 Miramar UPS Shootout Killing Two

3 months ago

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

US Domestic Policy

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Economics

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

3 months ago

Business

United States

U.S. Banks, Markets Close for Labor Day as Retailers Stay Open

3 months ago

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.01%chance

618654303

OptionVotes

YES

4601

719

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.9%chance

12137711

OptionVotes

YES

2242

1989

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19937419

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Jan 6, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.43%chance

19637008

OptionVotes

YES

3008

1200

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

41.2%chance

10613529

OptionVotes

YES

1412

893

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

218775

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

Will I manage to do a one-arm pull up in 2025?

Jul 27, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.35%chance

425544

OptionVotes

YES

2348

426

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

64.12%chance

504342

OptionVotes

YES

1338

698

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

64.77%chance

131549

OptionVotes

YES

1291

994

Will this tweet hold up: I think you guys need to mentally prepare yourselves for Sinners not winning a single thing

Oct 20, 3:48 PMMar 15, 3:36 PM

37.58%chance

161530

OptionVotes

YES

1730

1308

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

Aug 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:04 AM

46.48%chance

291190

OptionVotes

YES

1225

915

will I wake up? [cryonics]

Sep 11, 3:26 AMFeb 1, 4:21 AM

11.53%chance

7797

OptionVotes

YES

5273

2278

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Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Will I manage to do a one-arm pull up in 2025?

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Will this tweet hold up: I think you guys need to mentally prepare yourselves for Sinners not winning a single thing

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

will I wake up? [cryonics]

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