UPS News

Broward Judge Allows Stand Your Ground Hearing for Miami-Dade Officer Facing Manslaughter in 2019 Miramar UPS Shootout Killing Two

5 months ago

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

US Domestic Policy

Tariffs

Economics

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

5 months ago

Business

United States

U.S. Banks, Markets Close for Labor Day as Retailers Stay Open

5 months ago

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.17%chance

621655252

OptionVotes

YES

4756

713

S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?

Oct 9, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.72%chance

70173845

OptionVotes

YES

7564

133

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20037569

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Jan 6, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.43%chance

19637008

OptionVotes

YES

3008

1200

Graham Platner and James Talarico both win their primaries? Limit order up!

Jan 4, 1:24 AMMar 3, 11:59 PM

52%chance

2025285

OptionVotes

YES

1111

881

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

239972

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

Will this tweet hold up: I think you guys need to mentally prepare yourselves for Sinners not winning a single thing

Oct 20, 3:48 PMMar 15, 3:36 PM

8.32%chance

227394

OptionVotes

YES

4959

566

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

64.31%chance

524635

OptionVotes

YES

1343

695

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

82131

OptionProbability

Feb 2026

Jan 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.46%chance

131749

OptionVotes

YES

1195

1194

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

Aug 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:04 AM

46.48%chance

291190

OptionVotes

YES

1225

915

When will I through up? (2026 edition)

Dec 31, 6:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

OptionProbability

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

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Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Graham Platner and James Talarico both win their primaries? Limit order up!

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Will this tweet hold up: I think you guys need to mentally prepare yourselves for Sinners not winning a single thing

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

When will I through up? (2026 edition)

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