OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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1
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OptionProbability
Gene Editing Therapies
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Human-level AGI
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Bioprinting
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Quantum Computing Applications
Space-Based Manufacturing
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Seafloor Mining Robots
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Joywire
Commercial fusion power
Britain finishes HS2
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Lunar Bases
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Commercial asteroid mining
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Space-to-Earth power stations
Fusion Drives
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
Mars Base
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Changing the height of an adult at will
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Orbital Habitats
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Changing a person's race at will
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Human sex change at chromosome level
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
Time travel to the future
Vacuum Airships
Antimatter bombs
Human Mind Uploading
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Commercial cold fusion
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
Space Elevator
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
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2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
14347
7601
OptionProbability
Max Tegmark
Emmett Shear
Bruce Schneier
George Church
Scott Aaronson
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ben Bernanke
Stephen Fry
Tim Urban
Grimes
Scott Alexander
A former Fed Chair
Neel Nanda
A professor of a Chinese university
Stuart Russell
Yoshua Bengio
Toby Ord
Geoffrey Hinton
Carl Feynman
Vitalik Buterin
Yuval Noah Harari
Nick Bostrom
Dwarkesh Patel
Kevin Roose
Geoffrey Irving
Billy Perrigo
Manifold
Helen Toner
Gwern
Ezra Klein
Evan Hubinger
Patrick McKenzie
Publishers Weekly
Vox
Christine Peterson
Keach Hagey
Bill Gates
Joe Rogan
San Francisco Chronicle
Peter Singer
Booklist
NPR
Politico
Lex Fridman
Any five current members of the UK Parliament
The Economist
Matthew Yglesias
David Chalmers
A former US Secretary of Treasury
A former US Secretary of State
A Scientific American editorial
Time
A former US Secretary of Energy
A former US Secretary of Commerce
WIRED
Gillian Hadfield
Karen Hao
A review in The Atlantic
Telegraph
Kurzgesagt
The New York Times Book Review
Peter Norvig
At least five Nobel laureates
Rolling Stone
The New Yorker
Tucker Carlson
A Science editorial
The Guardian
Ray Kurzweil
John Schulman
A current pope
Financial Times
Bloomberg Businessweek
Forbes
A New Scientist editorial
BBC
Eric Schmidt
A current US Secretary of Treasury
John Oliver
IEEE Spectrum
Vanity Fair
Elon Musk
Mustafa Suleyman
A current UK prime minister
Judea Pearl
António Guterres
Foreign Affairs
Barack Obama
Anthropic
A Nature editorial
The Washington Post
Associated Press
Any five current United States representatives
The Wall Street Journal
Shane Legg
Ilya Sutskever
roon
Alexandr Wang
Daron Acemoglu
A high-ranking Chinese government official
Reuters
RFK Jr
Richard Sutton
Ivanka Trump
Narendra Modi
Dario Amodei
Joe Biden
Terence Tao
OpenAI
CNN
Any five current United States senators
Peter Thiel
Benjamin Netanyahu
Jimmy Fallon
Demis Hassabis
Mira Murati
A current Fed Chair
Ursula von der Leyen
DeepMind
JD Vance
Daniela Amodei
Jensen Huang
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Satya Nadella
Greg Egan
A current US Secretary of Energy
Bill Clinton
JK Rowling
Noam Chomsky
Fox News
Chris Olah
A current US Secretary of Commerce
A current US Secretary of State
Donald J. Trump
Mr. Beast
Vladimir Putin
Tim Cook
Kamala Harris
King Charles
Xi Jinping
Taylor Swift
Yann LeCun
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
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90
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84
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OptionProbability
Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth
Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles
Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard
Secretary of State: Marco Rubio
Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick
Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem
Attorney General: Pam Bondi
Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin
Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought
Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler
Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins
Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe
United States Trade Representative: James Greer
Ambassador to the United Nations:
Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum
Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner
Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright
Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins
President: Donald Trump
Vice President: JD Vance
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9
8
OptionProbability
Increased awareness/willingness to diagnose
Social Media
REM defficient sleep
Mass Psychogenic Illness
Phones
The postmodern condition becoming more widespread
Some form of intentional psychological manipulation (algorithmic manipulation, intentional group polarization, psychological warfare, etc.)
Hearing about bad things going on (like Climate Change)
Psychoactive drugs (prescribed or recreational)
There actually is no mental health crisis, it just looks like there is one due to e.g. biased reporting
Urbanicity
Socioeconomic hardships
Microplastics
Some sort of ingested/inhaled contaminant
Nanoplastics
cocaine dust particles passive intake
COVID vaccine side effect
92
85
71
70
67
57
55
51
50
41
28
27
23
15
12
8
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
13368
7042
OptionProbability
Jennifer Pahlka
Matt Levine
Daniel Abraham
Bruce Schneier
Rob Walling
Blake Scholl
Tarek Mansour
Will Wright
Chris Dixon
Dylan Matthews
Andy Matuschak
Byrne Hobart
Tyler Cowen
Dwarkesh Patel
Nate Soares
Paul Graham
Vitalik Buterin
John Carmack
Ben Thompson
Patrick Collison
John Collison
Oliver Habryka
Dirk Didascalou
Naval Ravikant
Tim Urban
Dominic Cummings
Balaji Srinivasan
Gwern Branwen
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Scott Alexander
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42
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25
25
20
20
20
14
8
8
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1125
943
OptionVotes
NO
YES
181
156
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1000
1000