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Top stories

U.S. F-22 Jets Escort Putin’s Plane After Alaska Summit With Trump

US Foreign Policy

U.S. F-22 Jets Escort Putin’s Plane After Alaska Summit With Trump

Authors

11

6 months ago

Prediction markets for US Air Force

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

44.05%chance

589686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

Will the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?

Jan 3, 5:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

3.48%chance

111118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

527

19

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.11%chance

27908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

900

Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by March 31, 2026?

Feb 1, 8:55 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

55%chance

22757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

US Air Force stock

Apr 13, 9:28 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

16611

OptionProbability

YES

NO

272

255

Will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US be transferred to the Trump presidential library (or similar) by 2029?

May 14, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

14370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will the US Navy's NGAD fighter enter service before the US Air Force's?

Apr 6, 8:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

46.98%chance

2142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

70

69

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

In what year will the A-10 Warthog be retired from service from the US Air Force?

Sep 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

332

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

2031 or later

Before 2027

50

50

50

50

50

34

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