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Prediction markets for US Army

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

49.18%chance

579586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

984

Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?

Oct 14, 5:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.63%chance

494553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

856

Will there be a nationwide abortion ban, ever, in the US?

Nov 8, 10:07 AMJul 5, 3:59 AM

27.48%chance

212952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

616

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.87%chance

242142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

942

Will China's navy still be the largest in the world in 2025?

Mar 6, 9:18 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

95.69%chance

141917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2765

834

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

181357

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a month, less than a year

More than a week, less than a month

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

33

31

18

10

4

4

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

80.25%chance

19871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

750

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.75%chance

22858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

906

US Army

Apr 13, 9:29 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

20480

OptionProbability

NO

YES

333

322

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.78%chance

6106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

72

Lab protocol for safe TATP synthesis from fine-tuned LLM by 2025

Sep 18, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.44%chance

887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

140

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