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Prediction markets for US Christian
Prediction markets for US Christian
Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
Apr 28, 4:20 AM
Nov 7, 11:59 PM
26.43%
chance
15
18900
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1669
599
Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027
Nov 2, 9:26 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
26.01%
chance
34
3538
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1352
821
Will "Paul Christiano named as US AI Safety Institu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Apr 30, 8:45 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
2%
chance
3
497
Option
Votes
YES
NO
596
75
Will "Christ Conquers Our Trials & Tribulations: Globalists Fail In Their War Against God"?
Aug 10, 12:30 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
10.54%
chance
7
400
Option
Votes
YES
NO
294
128
Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:54 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
14.86%
chance
9
344
Option
Votes
YES
NO
491
223
Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030?
Apr 4, 12:03 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
62.87%
chance
16
250
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1166
885
Will we see a free medical research zone in the US established in the next 20 years
Mar 2, 5:07 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
53.71%
chance
3
145
Option
Votes
NO
YES
103
65
Intuitively, without overthinking, are claims by X user @Kabamur_taygeta resonating with you at a soul level?
Mar 16, 1:51 AM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
32.87%
chance
4
122
Option
Votes
YES
NO
143
70
Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)
Oct 16, 1:57 AM
0
0
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