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Prediction markets for US Commerce

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140174415

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

71

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? [Polymarket]

Mar 14, 12:11 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10.6%chance

215129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2817

501

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.79%chance

281832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

31

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.78%chance

10415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

945

Will any US state (or DC) ban the sale of unrestricted 3D printers before 2030

Feb 23, 5:22 PMDec 31, 5:17 PM

51.1%chance

5149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

45

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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