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Prediction markets for US Commerce

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143189907

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

Other

2024

90

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12918

7753

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

12747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

771

Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?

May 8, 8:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

80.3%chance

6106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

41

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Jul 17, 11:52 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

50%chance

588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Aug 18, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.93%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?

May 8, 8:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

84.99%chance

361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

85

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Mandatory DNA synthesis screening law in the US by '27?

Apr 14, 6:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.79%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

97

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