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Prediction markets for US Commerce

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140175462

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

70

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?

Jun 18, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.29%chance

1311190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8735

114

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.64%chance

291835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?

Jun 22, 6:25 PMDec 31, 7:24 PM

39.94%chance

19422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

82

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.78%chance

10415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

945

Will the US Senate pass the Digital Bill of Rights by June 30, 2026?

Mar 26, 8:31 AMJul 1, 4:00 AM

9.24%chance

5230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

410

167

Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?

May 8, 8:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

71.62%chance

566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

54

Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?

May 8, 8:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

84.99%chance

361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

85

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Mandatory DNA synthesis screening law in the US by '27?

Apr 14, 6:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.79%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

97

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