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Prediction markets for US Commerce

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

137168554

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

66

16

6

4

4

3

1

1

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.48%chance

281803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

28

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.78%chance

10415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

945

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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