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Prediction markets for US Commerce

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140175462

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

70

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.39%chance

196976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13522

7406

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.79%chance

281832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

31

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.78%chance

10415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

945

Will the US Senate pass the Digital Bill of Rights by June 30, 2026?

Mar 26, 8:31 AMJul 1, 4:00 AM

9.39%chance

4224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

404

168

Will any US state (or DC) ban the sale of unrestricted 3D printers before 2030

Feb 23, 5:22 PMDec 31, 5:17 PM

59.61%chance

7201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

59

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Mandatory DNA synthesis screening law in the US by '27?

Apr 14, 6:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.79%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

97

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