US Customs News

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.47%chance

12337043

OptionVotes

YES

14077

6665

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

732223

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

YES

1816

552

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM

3818556

OptionProbability

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

100

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.6%chance

1811342

OptionVotes

YES

18504

5404

Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?

Jun 13, 1:40 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

65.82%chance

378978

OptionVotes

YES

1388

721

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?

Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Will GPT 5.6 Sol and Claude Fable 5 become broadly available to US customers on the same day?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

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