US Customs News

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

14299

6435

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

732223

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

YES

1862

538

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM

3015383

OptionProbability

Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)

Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.21%chance

204208

OptionVotes

YES

10135

9805

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

26.54%chance

363271

OptionVotes

YES

1664

601

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

113133

OptionVotes

YES

2293

437

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

2052

100

Will ICE cause an incident of note at the Olympics?

Jan 29, 5:06 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

28%chance

21533

OptionVotes

YES

160

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

1095

1027

US Customs News

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Will ICE cause an incident of note at the Olympics?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

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