US Customs News

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.01%chance

10726001

OptionVotes

YES

1394

718

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

7915760

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM

2711456

OptionProbability

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines)

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

611111

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

YES

10462

9632

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

23.73%chance

343206

OptionVotes

YES

1793

558

Will Google emoji kitchen include combos for the strong arm emoji 💪 by mid 2026?

Jan 2, 8:16 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

18.21%chance

312860

OptionVotes

YES

2119

472

Will the US distribute a broadly available vaccine for the 2025-26 flu season by November 1, 2025?

Feb 16, 11:00 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

66.46%chance

112156

OptionVotes

YES

1408

710

Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before January 1, 2026?

Nov 17, 3:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.75%chance

61147

OptionVotes

YES

1312

762

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

80.25%chance

19871

OptionVotes

YES

1388

750

US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026

Jul 22, 2:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.92%chance

4800

OptionVotes

YES

1818

573

US Customs News

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Will Google emoji kitchen include combos for the strong arm emoji 💪 by mid 2026?

Will the US distribute a broadly available vaccine for the 2025-26 flu season by November 1, 2025?

Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before January 1, 2026?

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026

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