US Customs News

By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15114321

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2025

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2026

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

14097

6644

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

24158

4139

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

YES

2576

389

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM

4318684

OptionProbability

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?

100

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

10497

2690

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.56%chance

414690

OptionVotes

YES

2329

429

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

234541

OptionVotes

YES

10073

9882

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

2052

100

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

YES

1691

591

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

YES

1115

1009

US Customs News

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

Prediction markets for US Customs

By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Latest stories