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Prediction markets for US Defense Department

How many weeks will the US–Iran war last?

Mar 7, 9:10 AMApr 8, 9:59 PM

332159791

OptionProbability

Above 1 week

Above 2 weeks (Mar 14)

Above 3 weeks (Mar 21)

Above 4 weeks (Mar 28)

Above 6 weeks (Apr 11)

Above 9 weeks (May 2)

Above 13 weeks (May 30)

Above 20 weeks (Jul 18)

Above 35 weeks (Oct 31)

Above 55 weeks (Mar 20, 2027)

Above 80 weeks (Sep 11, 2027)

Above 110 weeks (Apr 8, 2028)

100

100

100

96

91

74

52

45

34

25

19

15

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.81%chance

279331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24.08%chance

377740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1775

563

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

274056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.66%chance

211726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

510

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the US station 500 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 7, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.67%chance

8233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 8, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.9%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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