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Prediction markets for US Defense Department

US Department of Defense renamed to Department of War before 2026?

Aug 25, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

19652231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6727

427

Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?

Jan 8, 12:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.46%chance

221271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

28

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.07%chance

91052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

906

What will US defense spending be as a % of GDP in 2030?

Mar 8, 3:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4539

OptionProbability

3 - 3.49%

3.5 - 3.99%

1 - 1.99%

2 - 2.99%

4 - 4.99%

5 - 9.99%

10 - 19.99%

20%+

Below 1%

20

19

10

10

10

10

9

8

5

What will US defense spending be as a % of GDP in 2035?

Mar 8, 3:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1315

OptionProbability

3 - 3.49%

3.5 - 3.99%

4 - 4.49%

2.5 - 2.99%

2 - 2.49%

4.5 - 4.99%

5 - 5.99%

6 - 6.99%

7 - 9.99%

10%+

Below 2%

16

13

11

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

4

Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?

Nov 15, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.7%chance

10289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

556

308

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

Will the US station 500 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 7, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.67%chance

8233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

DoD raises rare earth price floor this year?

Jul 16, 11:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.47%chance

1094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 8, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.9%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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