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Prediction markets for US Defense Department

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?

Jan 8, 12:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15.61%chance

524021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

101081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

662

What will US defense spending be as a % of GDP in 2035?

Mar 8, 3:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1315

OptionProbability

3 - 3.49%

3.5 - 3.99%

4 - 4.49%

2.5 - 2.99%

2 - 2.49%

4.5 - 4.99%

5 - 5.99%

6 - 6.99%

7 - 9.99%

10%+

Below 2%

16

13

11

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

4

Will the US station 500 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 7, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.67%chance

8233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will the US government confirm the discovery of "significant weapons systems" on any Venezuelan Flotilla tanker?

Jan 12, 6:46 PMMar 1, 6:44 PM

7.19%chance

7129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

96

USA will bomb Iran before the end of February

Feb 2, 12:18 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

23.29%chance

8128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 8, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.9%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

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