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Prediction markets for US Defense Department

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.49%chance

2710441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3282

305

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.77%chance

439860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

543

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.39%chance

196976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13522

7406

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

304131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.4%chance

252024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2258

443

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

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