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Prediction markets for US Defense Department

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

63%chance

8321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

3315534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15062

6649

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.3%chance

2711498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4225

237

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

144938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3213

311

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.95%chance

324193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

735

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.12%chance

353812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3915

255

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.08%chance

212832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

470

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

11876

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before May 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Apr 2026

39

35

35

18

13

7

5

5

2

Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 8, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.9%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

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