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Prediction markets for US Department of Defense

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.04%chance

171660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1526

655

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Will another USA attack happens in Venezuelan soil in 2026?

Jan 5, 8:01 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.75%chance

14708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?

Nov 15, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.7%chance

10289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

556

308

Will the US station 500 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 7, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.67%chance

8233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

USA will bomb Iran before the end of February

Feb 2, 12:18 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

19.77%chance

9148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Will the US government confirm the discovery of "significant weapons systems" on any Venezuelan Flotilla tanker?

Jan 12, 6:46 PMMar 1, 6:44 PM

7.19%chance

7129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

96

Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 8, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.9%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

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