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Prediction markets for US Department of Defense

Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?

Jan 8, 12:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

9.87%chance

221221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.42%chance

291126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

808

What will US defense spending be as a % of GDP in 2030?

Mar 8, 3:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4539

What will US defense spending be as a % of GDP in 2035?

Mar 8, 3:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1315

Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?

Nov 15, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.7%chance

10289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

556

308

Will the US station 500 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 7, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

8229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

Sep 8, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.9%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

DoD raises rare earth price floor this year?

Jul 16, 11:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.58%chance

879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

472

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

80

59

59

45

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