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Prediction markets for US Department of Energy

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

Will the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV be less than $20/MWh by 2030?

Dec 18, 1:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.22%chance

12456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

157

What year will the cost of solar energy drop to 2 cents/kWh?

Mar 30, 2:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7426

☀️ 🏭 When will the US meet the goal of 2¢/kWh for utility-scale photovoltaics?

Dec 7, 3:52 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10221

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2025-2027

Beyond 2030 (or never)

Before the end of 2024

38

26

21

15

☀️ 🏡 When will the US meet the goal of 5¢/kWh for residential photovoltaics?

Dec 7, 4:21 PMApr 15, 6:59 AM

5104

OptionProbability

2028-2030

Beyond 2030 (or never)

2025-2027

Before the end of 2024

42

30

22

6

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