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Prediction markets for US District Court

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

22.11%chance

910947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18772

5327

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Dec 30, 5:32 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

164396

OptionProbability

Jun 30, 2026

Dec 31, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

99

99

0

Will a federal court filing by the US gov allege that Ilhan Omar's ex-husband is her biological sibling, by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.46%chance

131236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

841

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.6%chance

13470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

955

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

13299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

40

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

Will a US House seat flip from Democrat to Republican in a 2027 special election?

Oct 21, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.75%chance

3164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

1966

Will the Western Washington US District Court grant the FTC a permanent injunction against Amazon?

Sep 27, 1:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.2%chance

7162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

128

Will the U.S. Institute of Peace exist at the end of Trump II?

May 26, 9:36 PMJan 20, 10:30 PM

48.75%chance

5106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

98

Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?

Oct 21, 5:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

914

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