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Prediction markets for US Energy

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8553432

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

British Pound (GBP)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Paperclips

Gold (Au)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Ethereum (ETH)*

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

65

33

22

14

9

8

8

8

7

6

6

6

5

4

3

1

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.05%chance

5015103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16057

6228

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3243

194

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346916

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Other

Coal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Geothermal

Fusion

32

16

14

11

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Apr 8, 2:30 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

69.76%chance

93714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7048

3974

Will primary energy consumption in the US decrease by 2050?

Jan 26, 6:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

192550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

851

Will a thorium based nuclear reactor be in service for energy in the US before 2050?

Jun 25, 10:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.35%chance

151053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

811

Will Btc reach $1M before fusion is >1% of US energy?

May 14, 11:21 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

827

Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?

Mar 13, 1:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.82%chance

10218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

95

US battery energy storage doubles over 2025–2029?

Nov 30, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

6151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

44

Will Btc reach $300k before fusion is >0.1% of US energy?

May 17, 5:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.99%chance

8133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

117

Will Eth reach $100k before fusion is >0.1% of US energy?

May 17, 5:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

77

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