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Prediction markets for US FDA

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.77%chance

256014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5922

4777

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?

Oct 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

202370

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Jason Matheny

Max Tegmark

David Barnes

Alka Patel

Natasha Crampton

Yoshua Bengio

Ajeya Cotra

Chris Olah

Neel Nanda

Yann Le Cun

Geoffrey Hinton

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Timnit Gebru

Margaret Mitchell

64

6

5

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?

Jan 11, 2:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.23%chance

8781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

42

Ozempic approval is revoked or withdrawn before 2031

May 27, 4:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

14678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

911

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will the FDA limit microplastic amounts for food by 2028

Dec 16, 12:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

14.33%chance

10290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

60

[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?

Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM

15.79%chance

5156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

69

Will Nootropics Depot ever sell piracetam again?

Oct 16, 2:38 AMOct 23, 5:59 AM

53.77%chance

9110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

163

Will the US FDA approve topical finasteride to treat male pattern baldness by 2034?

Sep 16, 11:59 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

121

Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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