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Prediction markets for US FDA

Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?

Oct 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

202320

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Jason Matheny

Max Tegmark

David Barnes

Alka Patel

Natasha Crampton

Yoshua Bengio

Ajeya Cotra

Chris Olah

Neel Nanda

Yann Le Cun

Geoffrey Hinton

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Timnit Gebru

Margaret Mitchell

64

6

5

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will a vaccine for Lyme disease be available to the US public by the end of 2025?

Aug 10, 11:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.77%chance

282050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2506

525

Ozempic approval is revoked or withdrawn before 2031

May 27, 4:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

14678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

911

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will the FDA limit microplastic amounts for food by 2028

Dec 16, 12:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

14.33%chance

10290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

60

[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?

Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM

15.79%chance

5156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

69

Will Suzetrigine/VX-548 (non-opioid painkiller) be prescribed to >500k patients in 2025?

Sep 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.48%chance

3125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Will Nootropics Depot ever sell piracetam again?

Oct 16, 2:38 AMOct 23, 5:59 AM

50.3%chance

999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

164

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?

Jan 11, 2:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.94%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

73

Will the US FDA approve topical finasteride to treat male pattern baldness by 2034?

Sep 16, 11:59 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

121

Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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