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Prediction markets for US FDA

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25099

3984

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.82%chance

2913425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13323

3371

Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?

Oct 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

202370

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Jason Matheny

Max Tegmark

David Barnes

Alka Patel

Natasha Crampton

Yoshua Bengio

Ajeya Cotra

Chris Olah

Neel Nanda

Yann Le Cun

Geoffrey Hinton

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Timnit Gebru

Margaret Mitchell

64

6

5

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will the FDA conditionally approve a drug to extend lifespan or healthspan in dogs before January 1, 2028?

Oct 1, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.13%chance

31124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2535

1797

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

41

25

21

12

Ozempic approval is revoked or withdrawn before 2031

May 27, 4:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

14678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

911

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?

Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM

15.79%chance

5156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

69

Will the US FDA approve topical finasteride to treat male pattern baldness by 2034?

Sep 16, 11:59 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

121

Will Loyal report that LOY-002 met the STAY study's primary effectiveness endpoint by end of 2029?

Oct 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.98%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

1080

Will all mRNA type vaccines be abolished and pulled off market before 2040?

Oct 13, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

17.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

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