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Prediction markets for US Fed

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

317442494

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, R House

47

41

11

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.85%chance

12044583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7951

5514

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Jul 5, 2:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.78%chance

643864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

978

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.47%chance

18867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

972

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

May 24, 5:51 AMMay 24, 6:59 AM

46%chance

13699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

137

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Nov 25, 9:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

5431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

933

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

3238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

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