US Federal Court News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

YES

1177

850

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?

Mar 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.52%chance

564623

OptionVotes

YES

233

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

2303

434

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

1530

1005

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

YES

1123

942

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

Dec 17, 12:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8807

OptionProbability

Automatic Voter Registration Act

Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

Automatic Voter Registration

Early voting

Mail-in voting

Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

Banning Super PACs

Public Financing for Candidates

Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

Ranked-Choice Voting

Approval Voting

Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

Compulsory voting

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

1075

955

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

1300

769

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 6:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.65%chance

10294

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Sep 14, 4:17 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

48.34%chance

13185

OptionVotes

YES

229

185

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

221

183

US Federal Court News

Prediction markets for US Federal Court

Prediction markets for US Federal Court

Prediction markets for US Federal Court

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

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