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Prediction markets for US Federal Court

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

6.58%chance

3811521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3767

265

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

22.11%chance

910947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18772

5327

Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?

Mar 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

15.48%chance

727380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

57

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

144938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3213

311

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Will a federal court filing by the US gov allege that Ilhan Omar's ex-husband is her biological sibling, by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.46%chance

131236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

841

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

942

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 6:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.46%chance

11794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

863

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Jul 4, 6:28 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

47.31%chance

17586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

955

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.96%chance

5355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

816

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