US Federal Court News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

10480

9542

Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025?

Aug 19, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.02%chance

312131

OptionVotes

YES

1474

843

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

241653

OptionVotes

YES

1530

1005

Will any US federal court rule that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has broken federal law in 2025?

Feb 8, 1:01 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

91.33%chance

251532

OptionVotes

YES

325

Will the US knowingly deport at least one citizen to El Salvador for imprisonment by EOY2025?

Apr 3, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.46%chance

351255

OptionVotes

YES

163

Given that Trump wins, will sports betting be substantially less legal federally at the end of 2025?

Oct 3, 12:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.9%chance

4852

OptionVotes

YES

1648

607

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

YES

1123

942

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Jul 4, 6:28 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

54.95%chance

14554

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

1075

955

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 6:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.91%chance

10194

OptionVotes

YES

1126

944

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4188

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

US Federal Court News

Prediction markets for US Federal Court

Prediction markets for US Federal Court

Prediction markets for US Federal Court

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025?

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

Will any US federal court rule that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has broken federal law in 2025?

Will the US knowingly deport at least one citizen to El Salvador for imprisonment by EOY2025?

Given that Trump wins, will sports betting be substantially less legal federally at the end of 2025?

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

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