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Prediction markets for US Federal Government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

317442540

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, R House

47

41

11

0

0

0

0

0

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.42%chance

353823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

949

Will the US Federal Government legalize recreational marijuana by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.28%chance

552066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

946

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 6:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.65%chance

10294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

927

Will the US Government declare a new federal holiday before 2030?

Jul 4, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.71%chance

10269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

117

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2025?

Apr 4, 4:23 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

23.58%chance

180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

76

What will US federal government debt as a percent of GDP be in 2036?

Apr 4, 4:59 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

69.66%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

101

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2036?

Apr 4, 4:52 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

38.87%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

121

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2035?

Apr 4, 4:52 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

97

What will US federal government debt as a percent of GDP be in 2039?

Apr 4, 5:00 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

103

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2048?

Apr 4, 4:55 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

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