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Prediction markets for US Federal Government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

364508051

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

58

34

7

1

0

0

0

0

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.47%chance

353828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

949

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

52620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3449

306

Will the US Federal Government legalize recreational marijuana by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.28%chance

552066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

946

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 6:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.46%chance

11794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

863

Will installation of gas stoves in new construction homes be banned by the US Federal Government by 2030?

Jul 31, 11:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.24%chance

4224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

60

Before 2035, will there be a position titled "Listener of the House" in the US federal government?

Oct 18, 7:51 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

7205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

358

129

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2050?

Apr 4, 4:56 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

40%chance

283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

126

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2045?

Apr 4, 4:54 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

97

What will US federal government debt as a percent of GDP be in 2035?

Apr 4, 4:59 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

59.01%chance

222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

102

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2046?

Apr 4, 4:55 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2044?

Apr 4, 4:54 AMJun 12, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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