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US Federal Reserve News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Which central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?

Mar 23, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

275673

OptionProbability

US Federal Reserve

European Central Bank

Bank of Japan

Bank of Korea

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Bank of England

Reserve Bank of India

Bank of Canada

Swiss National Bank

People’s Bank of China

100

100

100

100

100

67

49

46

25

16

(When) will there be a significant change to timekeeping in the US?

Oct 21, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

163247

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2023

2024

45

15

13

11

10

5

1

1

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

Jul 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.71%chance

102663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

511

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.44%chance

262119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2176

460

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Feb 19, 7:54 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

37%chance

241760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.33%chance

241227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

626

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

Jun 10, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2865

OptionProbability

80% to 90%

90% or more

60% to 70%

70% to 80%

50% to 60%

40% to 50%

Less than 40%

25

20

17

15

11

6

5

Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?

Mar 29, 6:56 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

3.25%chance

10823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

614

116

Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026?

Apr 29, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.13%chance

13794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

539

42

Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026?

Sep 17, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.32%chance

14644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

943

What Big Moves will European Union make before midnight Christmas Eve 2034 (add)

Oct 7, 10:37 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

10626

OptionProbability

Add country(ies)

Relax unanimity requirements

Create Armed forces

Create Reserve like(ish) the US Federal Reserve

Remove a countries voting rights (even for a period)

Expel a country(ies)

Become a country

63

59

55

50

40

30

8

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