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Prediction markets for US Federal Reserve

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

Who will be elected US president in 2032?

Feb 3, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

153968

OptionProbability

Other

Gavin Newsom

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Andrew Cuomo

Pete Buttigieg

Donald J. Trump

66

10

9

5

5

2

2

2

1

(When) will there be a significant change to timekeeping in the US?

Oct 21, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

122820

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

2023

2024

42

18

14

10

9

6

1

1

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2065

484

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

39.07%chance

91326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.33%chance

241227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

626

Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026?

Apr 29, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.13%chance

13794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

539

42

Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?

Mar 29, 6:56 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

3.97%chance

9703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

514

119

What Big Moves will European Union make before midnight Christmas Eve 2034 (add)

Oct 7, 10:37 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

10611

OptionProbability

Add country(ies)

Relax unanimity requirements

Create Armed forces

Create Reserve like(ish) the US Federal Reserve

Remove a countries voting rights (even for a period)

Expel a country(ies)

Become a country

65

59

52

50

40

30

8

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

USD/CHF exchange rate 2026 July 31 16:00 UTC?

Jan 4, 5:45 AMJan 4, 9:59 PM

3210

OptionProbability

Above 0.50

Above 0.60

Above 0.70

Above 0.80

Above 0.90

95

90

76

50

17

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