US government News

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

317442110

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, R House

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

Feb 24, 8:03 PMJul 1, 9:20 PM

579349757

OptionProbability

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government

The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation

The supply chain risk designation is officially issued

OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements

A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees

The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI

US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification

Anthropic's contract is publicly available

OpenAI's new contract is publicly available

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers

The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act

Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)

The Pentagon and Anthropic come to some form of mutual settlement by the Friday deadline

100

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8921183

OptionVotes

YES

13505

8680

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.63%chance

7720024

OptionVotes

YES

2468

1439

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.22%chance

284076

OptionVotes

YES

1256

796

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Nov 20, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.8%chance

253581

OptionVotes

YES

2149

465

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

212211

OptionVotes

YES

1739

575

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

15936

OptionVotes

YES

1057

1047

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

48.11%chance

17694

OptionVotes

YES

1038

963

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

47.56%chance

8509

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Will the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?

May 15, 1:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.97%chance

13450

OptionVotes

YES

1076

962

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

1119

949

US government News

Prediction markets for US government

Prediction markets for US government

Prediction markets for US government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Will the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

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