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Prediction markets for US government

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14513

8421

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.63%chance

7720024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

1439

US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?

Jun 10, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

30.83%chance

8013373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

668

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.95%chance

324193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

735

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Nov 20, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.59%chance

263640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2092

478

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.81%chance

253167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2077

481

Will OpenAI receive a bailout from the US government by the end of 2028?

Nov 3, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.85%chance

161985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?

Jun 13, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.24%chance

211777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

519

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

30.77%chance

9959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

667

Will the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?

May 15, 1:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.99%chance

15582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

857

Will Nintendo take legal action against the US federal government?

Nov 5, 9:49 PMDec 31, 9:28 PM

27.98%chance

11330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

703

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

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