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Prediction markets for US government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

240347713

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

58

26

14

1

0

0

0

0

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

1411

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.92%chance

1918189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25826

2242

Does the US Federal Government spend 1% of its budget on dialysis?

Oct 24, 4:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.76%chance

306973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

975

Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?

May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM

79.45%chance

325288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3699

1218

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Nov 20, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

243431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2100

476

Will there be a US Sovereign Wealth Fund established by the federal government by the end of the 119th congress?

Nov 21, 6:49 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

8.78%chance

132441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2067

52

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

50%chance

8459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?

May 15, 1:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.97%chance

13450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

962

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

42.64%chance

5248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

862

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

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