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US government News

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

295416092

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, R House

52

37

11

0

0

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] How many days will the US government be shutdown in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:24 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3231668

OptionProbability

5 - 14

0 - 4

15 - 29

30 - 59

60 - 99

100 - 199

200 - 365

39

29

16

10

4

2

1

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.4%chance

7720018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2519

1433

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Nov 20, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.8%chance

253581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2149

465

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

15936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

1047

Will there be another US government shutdown in 2026?

Feb 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.82%chance

13888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

611

Another US government shutdown before February 14?

Feb 6, 6:16 AMFeb 15, 4:59 AM

63.02%chance

11730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

766

US government shutdown by October 1st 2026?

Feb 4, 6:18 PMOct 1, 5:16 PM

50.93%chance

7631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?

May 15, 1:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.97%chance

13450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

962

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

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