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Prediction markets for US Integrity

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

29.91%chance

81470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1727

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.63%chance

39981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

850

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

4408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

769

When will Qwen-Image-2.0 weights become publicly available?

Feb 11, 5:07 AMJul 1, 4:06 AM

4342

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2027

Before July 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 – June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

37

21

21

21

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Lynas reports at least one month production loss in 2026?

Nov 25, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.98%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?

Jun 15, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.3%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Now Target buys Starbucks on 2032

Feb 10, 2:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.89%chance

565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

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