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Prediction markets for US Integrity

What will be in the Manifold Mana store?

Sep 9, 1:15 AMJan 1, 2:04 AM

3011024

OptionProbability

T-shirt

Badges (virtual)

Hat

Stickers (physical)

Tote Bag

Streak utilities (eg a streak guard or streak restoration)

Coffee mug

Market skins

Phone case

Display name / user name colour variations

App icon colour variations

physical mana chips set (eg. for poker)

Condoms

Rationalussy sleeve toy 🍆

91

88

87

82

79

78

72

34

34

24

19

18

3

2

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

29.91%chance

81470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1727

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.63%chance

39981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

850

Intuitively, without overthinking, are claims by X user @Kabamur_taygeta resonating with you at a soul level?

Mar 16, 1:51 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

32.87%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

Lynas reports at least one month production loss in 2026?

Nov 25, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

00

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