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Prediction markets for US Integrity

Will the US government try to go after the family of the recent ICE shooting victim?

Jan 24, 7:12 PMFeb 23, 7:02 PM

6.8%chance

205564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3703

270

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

175492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10016

2817

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

29.91%chance

81470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1727

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.63%chance

39981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

850

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Lynas reports at least one month production loss in 2026?

Nov 25, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.48%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

00

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