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Prediction markets for US March

When will the next US recession be?

Aug 8, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:06 PM

3420556

OptionProbability

Before Q1 2030

Before Q3 2029

Before Q1 2029

Before Q3 2028

Before Q1 2028

Before Q3 2027

Q1 2030 or later

Before Q1 2027

Before Q3 2026

Before Q1 2026

70

62

58

57

55

42

28

24

11

1

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55%chance

7417186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1938

33

By March 2026, will 3+ prominent US politicians advocate for banning open-weight AI models?

Sep 20, 5:51 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

9%chance

5617154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

Fewer US programming jobs 1 year from March 13, 2025? [Tegmark / Ng bet]

Mar 13, 11:40 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

44.56%chance

525586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

896

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

Jan 26, 2:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

36%chance

372047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

273

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

29.91%chance

81470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1727

If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

32937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will the Don't Build It March happen by EOY 2026?

Nov 18, 4:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

9525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

729

Will ChatGPT be the top free app in the Apple app store on March 31, 2026? (US)

Jan 7, 5:00 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

70.18%chance

8226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

360

260

Will US supreme count will revoke tariffs sanctioned by trump before 1 march

Jan 15, 7:17 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

43.45%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

On March 1st 2026, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen?

Dec 24, 10:00 AMMar 1, 9:57 AM

45.66%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

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