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Prediction markets for US military

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

49.18%chance

579586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

984

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

48.33%chance

926251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2800

1132

Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?

Mar 29, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.71%chance

122046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1845

542

Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US citizens be killed by US military members on US soil?

Feb 11, 4:43 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

38.73%chance

91614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Mar 11, 3:37 PMJan 20, 12:00 AM

28.77%chance

201283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1574

635

By the next UK election, will a sitting MP publicly question US military presence in the UK?

Mar 10, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.54%chance

71169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

524

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.42%chance

291126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

808

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.75%chance

37866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

894

Will Trump use the US military to assist in carrying out mass deportations in 2025

Nov 18, 4:54 PMJan 8, 4:59 AM

85.65%chance

14513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

244

41

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.23%chance

135490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2106

1843

US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?

May 12, 7:14 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

29.23%chance

8116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

What countries will receive more than 100 million dollars in military aid from the US in 2034?

Sep 6, 4:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

337

OptionProbability

Israel

Ukraine

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Jordan

Czechia

Poland

Bulgaria

Romania

81

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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