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Iran Tests Hypersonic, Ballistic Missiles and Launches Steadfast Power 1404 Naval Drills After 12-Day War With Israel

7 months ago

China

US Foreign Policy

Robotics

US Navy’s $20 Million L3Harris Drone Fleet Program to Counter China Faces Crashes, Contract Pause, and Admiral Fired

7 months ago

China

India

World

India Tests New Air Defense System; China Unveils FK-3000, HQ-29; US Sikorsky Contract and Navy Drills; Iran Launches Cruise Missiles

7 months ago

[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Feb 28, 7:37 AMMay 31, 3:59 AM

28371599

OptionProbability

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

>= 10 American soldiers are killed

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel

Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days

Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel

>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed

Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon

Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel

Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war

A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects

Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days

A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel

100+ civilian deaths in Israel

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days

100

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Jun 23, 3:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.19%chance

7112012

OptionVotes

YES

5576

2992

Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2028?

Feb 27, 10:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.73%chance

151230

OptionVotes

YES

262

Will Dan Osborn be elected to Nebraska's US Senate seat in 2026?

Mar 3, 1:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

41099

OptionVotes

YES

1070

971

Will the US Navy continue their streak of never having a nuclear accident at the end of 2026?

Jul 22, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.38%chance

10434

OptionVotes

YES

458

US Navy stock

Apr 13, 9:29 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

16306

OptionProbability

YES

266

265

Will the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare

Dec 24, 2:37 AMDec 24, 2:34 AM

20%chance

13239

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will the US Navy's NGAD fighter enter service before the US Air Force's?

Apr 6, 8:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

46.98%chance

2142

OptionVotes

YES

During his 2nd term, will the US name a navy ship after Donald J. Trump?

Aug 24, 2:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.97%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

70.19%chance

338

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.39%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

50.99%chance

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for US Navy

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[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2028?

Will Dan Osborn be elected to Nebraska's US Senate seat in 2026?

Will the US Navy continue their streak of never having a nuclear accident at the end of 2026?

US Navy stock

Will the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare

Will the US Navy's NGAD fighter enter service before the US Air Force's?

During his 2nd term, will the US name a navy ship after Donald J. Trump?

Will the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

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