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Prediction markets for US SEC

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

50%chance

10218654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

149

Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?

Dec 24, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM

14.31%chance

559781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

409

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11488

8479

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:57 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6.57%chance

298709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3770

265

US passes bill to move President's Day to day after Super Bowl During Trump's Second Term

Feb 14, 9:15 PMJan 21, 1:00 AM

9.98%chance

103546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3007

336

Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:39 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

11.94%chance

203293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

368

As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.

Dec 28, 1:16 PMNov 1, 10:59 AM

20.03%chance

242926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

913

Will any US state secede before 2050?

Feb 20, 6:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.58%chance

262101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10197

8675

Will US fertility rise above 1.7 at any time during Trump’s second term?

Dec 25, 5:02 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

14.66%chance

191740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2412

415

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

846

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.75%chance

16325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

936

Will we have AGI before the US makes any major changes to Social Security?

Apr 5, 12:36 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

45.11%chance

12267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

974

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