US State Department News
Prediction markets for US State Department
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.7%chance
3134762
OptionVotes
25099
3984
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19.65%chance
9122191
OptionVotes
14513
8421
OptionVotes
1305
766
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.63%chance
3315534
OptionVotes
15062
6649
Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.6%chance
9413352
OptionVotes
1142
876
OptionVotes
3793
126
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.81%chance
253167
OptionVotes
2077
481
OptionVotes
2071
483
Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?
Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.84%chance
301176
OptionVotes
1085
858
OptionProbability
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031
Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
37%chance
3305
OptionVotes
1305
766
will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??
Apr 15, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
85%chance
10297
OptionVotes
238
42

