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Prediction markets for US Supreme Court

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.49%chance

8816876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

673

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.23%chance

4412058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5730

3134

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

Jan 27, 4:01 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

113789

OptionProbability

6-3 (balance as of 2024)

7-2

8-1

9-0

Other

5-4 or lower

73

15

5

3

3

1

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

88.32%chance

162386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2749

364

Will the US supreme court contain more than 9 justices before 2030?

Jan 30, 6:22 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.04%chance

271481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

976

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

63.51%chance

91341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

758

Will The Next US Supreme Court Justice Be Appointed By A Democrat?

Oct 8, 8:37 PMMar 29, 3:59 AM

19%chance

18806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

61

Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.06%chance

18526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

1016

Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election appoint a Supreme Court Justice before 2029

Dec 18, 9:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.39%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

127

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]?

Mar 28, 1:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10224

OptionProbability

Went to an Ivy League school

Once confirmed, will be the 9th member of the court

Replacing a live, retired Justice

Older than 50

Nominated by a Republican President

Male

White

Has children

Nominated by Joe Biden

85

81

78

56

52

50

50

50

13

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