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Prediction markets for US Supreme Court

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.49%chance

8816876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

673

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.11%chance

4512190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5670

3269

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

87.93%chance

162437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

370

Will the US supreme court contain more than 9 justices before 2030?

Jan 30, 6:22 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.04%chance

271481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

976

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

63.51%chance

91341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

758

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 12:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

191124

OptionProbability

Conversion therapy

Gender-affirming care for minors

Anti-discrimination laws

Editing gender markers on government documents

Transgender bathroom rights

Coverage of gender-affirming care

LGBT+ topics in schools

Transgender athletes

Drag shows and/or gender-non conforming expression

Gender-affirming care for adults

LGBT+ people in the military

Parental notification of LGBT+ students

Gender dysphoria in the ADA

Same-sex intimacy

Same-sex marriage

98

96

92

78

72

67

59

57

56

40

38

36

34

20

10

Will The Next US Supreme Court Justice Be Appointed By A Democrat?

Oct 8, 8:37 PMMar 29, 3:59 AM

19%chance

18806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

61

Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.06%chance

18526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

1016

Will there be more than 9 Justices in the US Supreme Court on Jan 1, 2030?

May 15, 8:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.71%chance

10333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

175

When will US Supreme Court hear a case on AI legal personhood?

Oct 8, 7:05 PMJan 1, 8:00 PM

6233

OptionProbability

2030s

2040s

2050s

2020s

2060+ or never

44

25

16

12

3

What will be true about the next person confirmed to the US Supreme Court [Mega Market]?

Mar 28, 1:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10224

OptionProbability

Went to an Ivy League school

Once confirmed, will be the 9th member of the court

Replacing a live, retired Justice

Older than 50

Nominated by a Republican President

Male

White

Has children

Nominated by Joe Biden

85

81

78

56

52

50

50

50

13

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