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Prediction markets for US Supreme Court

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.49%chance

8816876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

673

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.37%chance

328030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6565

1811

US Supreme Court upholds Colorado's conversion therapy ban in Chiles v Salazar?

Oct 7, 6:35 PMJul 31, 6:19 PM

6.8%chance

194718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3703

270

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Jan 23, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

243313

OptionProbability

Gender-affirming care for minors

LGBT+ topics in schools

Conversion therapy

Transgender athletes

Coverage of gender-affirming care

Anti-discrimination laws

LGBT+ people in the military

Gender-affirming care for adults

Editing gender markers on government documents

Parental notification of LGBT+ students

Drag shows and/or gender-non conforming expression

Gender dysphoria in the ADA

Transgender bathroom rights

Same-sex marriage

Same-sex intimacy

99

99

98

92

49

42

34

31

31

30

29

20

14

10

6

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

87.98%chance

152342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2705

370

Will the US supreme court contain more than 9 justices before 2030?

Jan 30, 6:22 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.04%chance

271481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

976

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

59.79%chance

91241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10775

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Brett Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

66

24

9

5

4

4

4

3

3

Will an age limit be placed on the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Jan 11, 6:30 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

4.61%chance

10573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

557

181

Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.06%chance

18526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

1016

Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election appoint a Supreme Court Justice before 2029

Dec 18, 9:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.39%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

127

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