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Prediction markets for US Supreme Court

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.9%chance

6824935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6724

4741

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.81%chance

8916881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

667

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

87.58%chance

162443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2656

376

Will the US supreme court contain more than 9 justices before 2030?

Jan 30, 6:22 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.69%chance

281581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

960

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

63.51%chance

91341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

758

When will the US Supreme Court first have more women than men?

Dec 7, 1:30 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6723

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2026

2025

47

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

4

2

Will the US add another state or more Supreme Court justices first

Mar 28, 9:52 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

18575

OptionProbability

More Supreme Court justices(for a total of 11 or more)

Another US state

52

48

Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.06%chance

18526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

1016

Will there be more than 9 Justices in the US Supreme Court on Jan 1, 2030?

May 15, 8:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.71%chance

10333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

175

When will US Supreme Court hear a case on AI legal personhood?

Oct 8, 7:05 PMJan 1, 8:00 PM

6233

OptionProbability

2030s

2040s

2050s

2020s

2060+ or never

44

25

16

12

3

Will the next new member of the US Supreme Court be a member of the Federalist Society?

Jul 17, 5:33 AMJul 17, 5:30 AM

59.02%chance

326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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