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US Supreme Court News

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.36%chance

12665915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20464

3704

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.8%chance

8516054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

807

Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 3:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

206797

OptionProbability

Clarence Thomas

Samuel Alito

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Brett Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Ketanji Brown Jackson

5

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

US Supreme Court upholds Colorado's conversion therapy ban in Chiles v Salazar?

Oct 7, 6:35 PMJul 31, 6:19 PM

10.35%chance

174370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Jan 23, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

222823

OptionProbability

Gender-affirming care for minors

LGBT+ topics in schools

Conversion therapy

Transgender athletes

Coverage of gender-affirming care

Anti-discrimination laws

LGBT+ people in the military

Gender-affirming care for adults

Transgender bathroom rights

Editing gender markers on government documents

Parental notification of LGBT+ students

Drag shows and/or gender-non conforming expression

Gender dysphoria in the ADA

Same-sex marriage

Same-sex intimacy

99

99

99

80

62

42

34

31

31

31

30

29

20

7

6

Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025?

Aug 19, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.02%chance

322151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

843

Will a 10th Judge be Appointed to the US Supreme Court by 2026?

Dec 19, 9:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.16%chance

92059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

82

Will the US supreme court contain more than 9 justices before 2030?

Jan 30, 6:22 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.59%chance

251331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

945

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

50.96%chance

81041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

56.37%chance

13704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

880

Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.74%chance

17476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

950

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

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