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Prediction markets for US Supreme Court

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.46%chance

7133220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5473

4989

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62%chance

9717520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

442

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

Jan 27, 4:01 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

113789

OptionProbability

6-3 (balance as of 2024)

7-2

8-1

9-0

Other

5-4 or lower

73

15

5

3

3

1

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

87.58%chance

162443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2656

376

Will the US supreme court contain more than 9 justices before 2030?

Jan 30, 6:22 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.54%chance

281981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

617

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

75.43%chance

111774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1752

571

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2030?

Jan 23, 12:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

201205

OptionProbability

Conversion therapy

Gender-affirming care for minors

Anti-discrimination laws

Transgender athletes

LGBT+ topics in schools

Editing gender markers on government documents

Transgender bathroom rights

Coverage of gender-affirming care

Drag shows and/or gender-non conforming expression

Gender-affirming care for adults

LGBT+ people in the military

Parental notification of LGBT+ students

Gender dysphoria in the ADA

Same-sex intimacy

Same-sex marriage

98

96

92

82

82

78

72

67

56

40

38

36

34

20

10

When will the US Supreme Court first have more women than men?

Dec 7, 1:30 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6723

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2026

2025

47

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

4

2

Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.06%chance

18526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

1016

Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election appoint a Supreme Court Justice before 2029

Dec 18, 9:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.39%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

127

Will the US Supreme Court uphold AR-15-like weapons bans?

Jul 1, 1:27 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

11133

OptionProbability

No

No Guidance

Partial

Yes

38

27

25

10

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