OptionProbability
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
Other (10m+ deaths)
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
Worldwide Pandemic
29
27
8
7
4
USA Rare Earth
GlobalFoundries
Boeing
United Health
Tesla
AMD
Ford
Palantir
Moderna
55
37
33
28
20
17
Less than a day
More than a year, less than a decade
More than a month, less than a year
More than a week, less than a month
More than a day, less than a week
More than a decade
40
16
10
