OptionProbability
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
55
37
32
14
12
10
8
USA Rare Earth
ExxonMobile
Chevron
Sunoco
GlobalFoundries
Boeing
Ford
Palantir
Tesla
AMD
United Health
Moderna
50
35
29
17
15
Less than a day
More than a year, less than a decade
More than a week, less than a month
More than a month, less than a year
More than a day, less than a week
More than a decade
36
24
19
3
