OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Donald Trump remains President of USA
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Sudanese Civil War ends
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
China invades Taiwan
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Any country leaves NATO
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
USA leaves NATO
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
95
89
83
81
75
72
68
67
62
60
58
58
57
56
56
55
54
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
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46
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46
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43
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25
25
23
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22
20
20
19
19
15
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15
13
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12
11
9
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4
2
1
