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Prediction markets for USD Index

When will Elon Musk's net worth surpass $1 trillion?

Oct 2, 4:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

325816

OptionProbability

October 2026 or before

Other

June 2027

December 2026

January 2037 or later

June 2029

December 2030

October 2027

December 2027

December 2033

December 2036

45

32

8

6

4

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?

Jan 27, 1:27 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

17.06%chance

301684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

When will Elon Musk first have a net worth of $1 trillion

Jan 30, 10:36 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

8916

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2030+

2028

2025

77

6

6

6

4

0

Will bitcoin cash hit $600 before April?

Feb 24, 3:57 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

3.85%chance

11745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

500

20

Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,000 per tonne on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:09 PMApr 1, 6:08 PM

15.79%chance

3370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

52

Who will be the first trillionaire?

Dec 29, 5:04 PMDec 29, 11:59 PM

9259

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Larry Page

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Jensen Huang

Other

81

4

3

3

3

3

3

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

Oct 12, 10:19 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

59.57%chance

471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

93

Will the TTM tantalum concentrate import price exceed 150 USD/lb on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:08 PMMay 1, 6:07 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the TTM tantalum price for concentrate imports exceed 160 USD/lb on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:07 PMApr 1, 6:07 PM

48.44%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will Gerd Kommer outperform MSCI World over 10 years?

Jun 22, 6:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.85%chance

547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

66

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

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