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Prediction markets for Utilities

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

505971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

768

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.35%chance

211786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

870

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.53%chance

121779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

566

If nuclear weapons are utilized in the India Pakistan conflict, which country will pull the trigger first.

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 7:43 PM

91774

OptionProbability

Pakistan

India

75

25

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.36%chance

271340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

848

By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Feb 21, 8:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10%chance

171308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

972

Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.69%chance

11609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

111

Will a US state take an electric utility to court for a major wildfire occurring in the next 2y?

Aug 30, 3:40 PMSep 2, 5:59 AM

14.53%chance

12573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

388

37

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.17%chance

15541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

961

When will the default term of a U.S. utility patent first be anything other than 20 years?

Sep 1, 3:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1154

OptionProbability

2036 or later

2031-2035

2026-2030

2025 or earlier

44

28

18

10

Will ACL continue to utilize ARR as the sole method of submission in 2025?

Jan 4, 4:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.74%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

92

Will Ann Arbor Michigan have a municipal electric utility by the end of 2029?

Dec 1, 1:28 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

65%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

57

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