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Prediction markets for Utility We Energies

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2025?

Jul 26, 2:05 AMSep 2, 3:59 AM

92992

OptionProbability

30 GW to 45 GW

<30 GW

45 GW to 60 GW

60 GW to 75 GW

>75 GW

38

28

21

6

6

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Feb 21, 8:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10%chance

171308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

972

Will nuclear propulsion be used in any spacecraft before 2050?

Jan 20, 4:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

111058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

125

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.17%chance

15541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

961

Will the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV be less than $20/MWh by 2030?

Dec 18, 1:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.22%chance

12456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

157

What year will the cost of solar energy drop to 2 cents/kWh?

Mar 30, 2:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7426

Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?

Jun 1, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.59%chance

11339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

31

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2026?

Feb 14, 3:41 AMMay 1, 3:59 AM

5257

OptionProbability

30 GW to 45 GW

<30 GW

45 GW to 60 GW

60 GW to 75 GW

>75 GW

36

22

19

13

11

☀️ 🏭 When will the US meet the goal of 2¢/kWh for utility-scale photovoltaics?

Dec 7, 3:52 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10221

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2025-2027

Beyond 2030 (or never)

Before the end of 2024

38

26

21

15

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